A collaborative research team from China has published a new analysis that shows the Earth's climate would increase by 4 °C, compared to pre-industrial levels, before the end of 21st century.
INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
To understand the severity of this, consider the Paris Agreement of the United Nations. It's a global effort to prevent an increase of 2°C. Nearly every country on the planet--the United States is the only country to withdraw--has agreed to work to prevent the catastrophic effects of two degrees of warming.
The researchers published their analysis projecting a doubling of that increase in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences on May 18, 2018.
"A great many record-breaking heat events, heavy floods, and extreme droughts would occur if global warming crosses the 4 °C level, with respect to the preindustrial period," said Dabang Jiang, a senior researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. "The temperature increase would cause severe threats to ecosystems, human systems, and associated societies and economies."
In the analysis, Jiang and his team used the parameters of scenario in which there was no mitigation of rising greenhouse gas emissions. They compared 39 coordinated climate model experiments from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, which develops and reviews climate models to ensure the most accurate climate simulations possible.
They found that most of the models projected an increase of 4°C as early as 2064 and as late as 2095 in the 21st century, with 2084 appearing as the median year.
This increase translates to more annual and seasonal warming over land than over the ocean, with significant warming in the Arctic. The variability of temperature throughout one year would be lower in the tropics and higher in polar regions, while precipitation would most likely increase in the Arctic and in the Pacific. These are the same effects that would occur under 1.5°C or 2°C increases, but more severe.
"Such comparisons between the three levels of global warming imply that global and regional climate will undergo greater changes if higher levels of global warming are crossed in the 21st century," wrote Jiang.
The researchers continue to investigate the changes associated with 4°C of global warming in extreme climates.
"Our ultimate goal is to provide a comprehensive picture of the mean and extreme climate changes associated with higher levels of global warming based on state-of-the art climate models, which is of high interest to the decision-makers and the public," said Jiang.
Researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, the Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters at the Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, the Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change at Chengdu University of Information Technology, and the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences contributed to this study.
This work was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.
'Uniquely human' muscles have been discovered in apes
Apes also have muscles long-believed to be only present in humans and used for walking on two legs, using complex tools, and sophisticated facial and vocal communication
FRONTIERS
Muscles once thought 'uniquely human' have been discovered in several ape species, challenging long-held theories on the origin and evolution of human soft tissues. The findings question the anthropocentric view that certain muscles evolved for the sole purpose of providing special adaptations for human traits, such as walking on two legs, tool use, vocal communication and facial expressions. Published in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, the study highlights that thorough knowledge of ape anatomy is necessary for a better understanding of human evolution.
"This study contradicts key dogmas about human evolution and our distinct place on the 'ladder of nature,'" says Rui Diogo, an Associate Professor in the Department of Anatomy at Howard University, Washington, USA. "Our detailed analysis shows that in fact, every muscle that has long-been accepted as 'uniquely human' and providing 'crucial singular functional adaptations' for our bipedalism, tool use and vocal and facial communications is actually present in the same or similar form in bonobos and other apes, such as common chimpanzees and gorillas."
Long-standing evolutionary theories are largely based on the bone structures of prehistoric specimens -- and, according to Diogo, also on the idea that humans are necessarily more special and complex than other animals. These theories suggest that certain muscles evolved in humans only, giving us our unique physical characteristics. However, verification of these theories has remained difficult due to scant descriptions of soft tissues in apes, which historically have mainly focused on only a few muscles in the head or limbs of a single specimen.
Diogo explains, "There is an understandable difficulty in finding primate, and particularly ape, specimens to dissect as they are so rare both in the wild and museums."
To find enough data to complete this research, Diogo compiled all previous information on ape anatomy based on studies with colleague Bernard Wood. He also conducted anatomical research on several bonobos that died of natural causes, together with colleagues at the University of Antwerp under the Bonobo Morphology Initiative 2016 -- looking for the presence of seven different muscles thought to have evolved only in our species.
Diogo discovered that these seven muscles were present in apes in a similar or even exact form. For example the fibularis tertius muscle, said to be uniquely associated with human bipedalism (walking on two legs), was present in half the examined bonobos. Similarly, both the laryngeal muscle arytenoideus obliquus and the facial muscle risorius -- thought to have evolved for our uniquely sophisticated vocal and facial communication, respectively -- were present in at least some chimpanzees and/or gorillas.
These findings open crucial new directions for research and question our understanding of human evolution. "The picture emerging from this research is that the origin and evolution of human soft-tissue is clearly more complex -- and not as exceptional -- as first thought," says Diogo.
"We need a more thorough examination of why these muscles are present in apes and, in some cases, in just part of a population within a certain species," he says. "Are these muscles essential for the apes that have them, as adaptationist evolutionary scientists would argue? Or are they evolutionary neutral features related to how their bodies develop, or simply by-products of other features?"
He concludes, "Most theories of human evolution give the impression that humans are markedly distinct from apes anatomically, but these are unverifiable 'just-so stories'. The real evidence shows we are not so different overall. This study highlights that a thorough knowledge of ape anatomy is necessary for a better understanding of our own bodies and evolutionary history."
Disadvantaged students with lower grades do just as well on medical degrees
Students with lower A Levels from poorly performing schools do just as well on medical degrees
Students from some of England's worst performing secondary schools who enroll on medical degrees with lower A Level grades, on average, do at least as well as their peers from top performing schools, a new study has revealed.
The research also found that students from poorly performing schools who match the top A Level grades achieved by pupils from the best performing schools, go on to do better during a medical degree.
The authors of the research are now calling for medical school entry criteria to be relaxed for all pupils applying from low-performing schools.
The study, led by academics from the University of York alongside partners at the Universities of Dundee and Durham, analysed data from UK medical degree courses and linked it to information on secondary schools from the Department for Education.
Some universities, such as Birmingham, Southampton and Kings College London, have already trialled A Level 'grade discounting' for medical school place offers for some disadvantaged applicants.
Lead author of the paper, Lazaro Mwandigha, from the Department of Health Sciences at the University of York said: "This study suggests that relaxing A Level grade entry requirements for students from the worst performing secondary schools is beneficial. Although there are important further questions about how to fairly classify schools, the study demonstrates that these students are, on average, just as able to keep up with the pace of a medical degree".
There is fierce competition to study medicine in the UK with normally around 11-12 applications made for each place on offer. Partly as a result of this, entry grade requirements have crept up to AAA or A* AA at A Level. Despite only 5.3% of children in the UK going to private school, around half of medical degree places are currently filled by students who attended selective schools.
Supervising author Dr Paul Tiffin said: "This study is the first robust evidence that grade discounting for pupils from underperforming schools is justified. At the moment around 20% of UK schools are providing 80% of our medical students so A Level achievement should be viewed in terms of the context in which a pupil learns in order to help increase fairness and widen participation in medicine."
While they acknowledge it is not a "cure all" solution, the researchers argue that lowering entry grades for certain pupils could work as part of a package of measures.
Dr Lewis Paton, another member of the research team at the University of York, said: "Bright pupils from less well performing schools sometimes don't apply to medical school because they or their teachers don't think they'll make the grades required to get in. If medical schools started to contextualise A Level results, it could make access to studying medicine appear more achievable."
The researchers argue that widening access to medical degrees is not just a matter of social fairness; it is also something that would benefit the UK's health services.
Dr Tiffin added, "The NHS needs more doctors from under-represented minority groups. Having doctors from a wider range of backgrounds would enable health professionals to better understand and meet the UK's diverse healthcare needs."
Clare Owen, Assistant Director of the Medical Schools Council, said "This research adds important data to our understanding of how entry requirements relate to subsequent performance. The Medical Schools Council recognises the benefits of admissions which take applicants' backgrounds into account and this year published a guide which collects together the best practice of medical schools as they implement contextual admissions. Each medical school must decide on the best approach for its circumstances and this research will help them by making a significant contribution to the evidence base"
The study looked at data on medical students who had taken the UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) - the admissions test used by most UK universities for admissions to their medical degree programmes. The dataset included information on schools attended by applicants, A level results, admissions to medical degrees and performance on the course.
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